An overview, event on October 23, the company released three quarterly reports, in 2015 September 1 - revenue in 560 million, 3.93 million, compared to the female net profit 79.78 million, an increase of 6%, with revenue in the third quarter of 130 million, 10% over the previous year, female net profit 2.76 million, 90% year-on-year reduction.
Ii. Event comment:
The fall in dye prices dragged down third-quarter revenue, and the fourth quarter is expected to turn a corner. According to the data of the general administration of customs, China's export price of synthetic organic dyes has dropped for two consecutive months. The company's main dispersal and reactive dyes have been dragged down by falling dye prices, and the decline in third-quarter revenue was in line with expectations. Relatively in October last year, this year in August dye intermediates such as benzene, toluene prices fell more than 40%, after prices rebounded on average about 10% in October, we expect the dye cost side down the space is not large at the moment. Downstream KeQiao textiles price index since August after recovery, index rose 1.3 points, we expect in the fourth quarter as the dye downstream products demand picks up, dye price and demand is expected to rebound.
Main differentiated products, differentiated advantages to improve the company's ability to withstand risks. At present, the company has a capacity of 36,000 tons of disperse dyes, which will be released gradually according to market conditions and reach production in stages. The production capacity of reactive dyes is 8,500 tons. According to the company's plan, the production capacity will be increased to 20,000 tons. The company has a high market share in the market of differentiated disperse dyes, such as disperse dyes for ultra-fine fibers, high washing dyes, low temperature reactive dyes and reactive printing dyes. At present, the development of the differentiated products mainly rely on the development of new fabrics, the current international big brand fabrics of different types, different functions of ongoing development, large and medium-sized printing and dyeing enterprise research and development ability, and business is growing, the acceptance of the market, customer demand, the company's differentiation dye varieties of the market space will follow.
China dye and printing and dyeing association shares, the industry e-commerce platform growth space is huge. Company and a wholly owned subsidiary of China printing association set up Beijing mega nylon dyeing consulting co., LTD. Of China dyestuff industry association, China invested subsidiary of Beijing dye trade co., LTD., yixing LeQi textile group co., LTD., a wholly owned subsidiary shaoxing belle constant shaoxing KeQiao new printing and dyeing co., LTD, shishi city cheung hua group jointly established the "Shanghai seven colourful clouds electronic commerce co., LTD.". With the promotion of Internet + industry, the investment of industry association and several large printing and dyeing factories has provided a broad space for the development of e-commerce platform.
Upstream intermediate short plate complement, the company dye industry chain layout tends to improve. Companies to invest 500 million gathered in north ditch of penglai city industrial park construction capacity of 30000 tons of fine chemical intermediates projects, the park is the only carrier in the jiaodong peninsula in compliance with the approved by the environmental protection department of professional chemical industrial park. The project is expected to put some products into production in the second half of 2015, fully reaching the estimated annual revenue of 1 billion yuan after delivery. With the increase of market demand for high cotton and mix-like fabrics, the amount of dye intermediates has increased greatly, and the price is expected to continue to rise. With the production of yantai intermediates project, the integrated layout of the company's dyestuff industry tends to be improved. While improving its profitability, it also improves its risk tolerance.
Risk: the price of dye is lower than expected, and the project production schedule is uncertain.
The profit forecast and investment recommendation of the investment target predict that the company's earnings from 2015 to 2017 will be 0.39 yuan, 0.55 yuan and 0.84 yuan respectively, corresponding to the PE of 24 times, 17 times and 11 times respectively. As the intermediates project goes into production, the overall profitability of the company's dye industry chain is expected to improve, maintaining a strong recommendation rating.